Herd Immunity
There are two ways to reach herd immunity for Covid-19: the slow way, and the catastrophic way - Brian Resnick
image by: Ol Pejeta Conservancy
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How many people need to get a COVID-19 vaccine in order to stop the coronavirus?
It has been clear for a while that, at least in the U.S., the only way out of the coronavirus pandemic will be through vaccination. The rapid deployment of coronavirus vaccines is underway, but how many people need to be vaccinated in order to control this pandemic?
I am a computational biologist who uses data and computer models to answer biological question at the University of Connecticut. I have been tracking my state’s COVID-19 epidemic with a computer model to help forecast the number of hospitalizations at the University of Connecticut’s John Dempsey Hospital.
This type of computer model and the underlying theory can also be used to calculate the vaccination rates…
Resources
Vaccine Refusal May Put Herd Immunity At Risk, Researchers Warn
The reasons for saying "no" to a vaccine are often complex. NPR's polling shows that a diverse swath of Americans are reluctant. Some groups do stand out as more likely to refuse: Republican men, rural residents and Americans under 45, for example. But the number of people saying no is relatively high across racial groups, economic classes and geographic regions.
How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?
Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.
Covid-19 Herd Immunity Proves Elusive in U.K.
British cases and deaths have been rising but the government says it won’t reimpose restrictions now.
Most People Are Thinking of Herd Immunity All Wrong
The phrase “herd immunity” has become our utopia—a promised land where we can live life as it was before the pandemic. But it’s appropriate that utopia means “nowhere,” because whether that’s even possible has now come under debate. This is hard to hear because scientific pessimism about herd immunity feels like giving up on the whole idea of returning to normal life. But we can still look forward to the pandemic’s end if we understand what herd immunity really is. Spoiler alert: It’s complicated.
What people get wrong about herd immunity, explained by epidemiologists
There are two ways to reach herd immunity for Covid-19: the slow way, and the catastrophic way.
Why Vaccines Are Essential to Herd Immunity
Scientists say 60% to 70% of the population would have to gain immunity to Covid-19 through infection or vaccination to reach widespread protection.
Will herd immunity save us?
Achieving the herd immunity threshold is a very lofty goal. At that level, life really could go back to normal, including open schools with no restrictions, large gatherings both indoors and out, and all the other activities we used to take for granted.
Coronavirus: What is the R number and how is it calculated?
There is a simple but crucial number at the heart of understanding the threat posed by the coronavirus. It is guiding governments around the world on the actions needed to save lives and to lift lockdown.
COVID-19 infection externalities: Herd immunity versus containment strategies
At the centre of the debate on how to deal with the novel coronavirus is whether to aim for containment or herd immunity. A crucial factor in this decision is whether we are guided by individually optimising behaviour or by overall societal welfare, since COVID-19 gives rise to substantial externalities.
The Great Barrington Declaration is an ethical nightmare
These scientists want more young, healthy people infected by the coronavirus. It’s a bad idea.
The Numerical Language of Covid-19: A Primer
Understanding terms like R0, R and herd immunity is vital to understanding spread of pandemic
The ‘herd immunity’ route to fighting coronavirus is unethical and potentially dangerous
Herd immunity is essentially a numbers game. It all rests on the basic reproduction rate - in other words, how many new infections each case will generate. A rate with a value of 1 would mean that one person can pass it on to at least one other person. The higher this number, the more infections from that one case. So to end the spread, this number will need to drop below 1. The reproduction rate for coronavirus is between 2 and 3.
Without A Vaccine, Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us
A number of variables can affect when herd immunity is reached — and what it costs to get there — and they vary depending on the disease. How infectious is the disease? How deadly is it? And how long do people stay immune once they’ve gotten it?
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity
The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
COVID-19 herd immunity isn’t happening any time soon
Both our current actions and our immune responses will play a role in population immunity.
Herd immunity alone won’t stop COVID-19. Here’s why.
We have better ways to fight the pandemic.
Herd Immunity Is Not a Strategy
What the term actually means, and what it doesn’t.
Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think
Some early assumptions about Covid-19 no longer add up—and that could be good news for the future progress of the virus. There are reasons to think the novel coronavirus began spreading earlier than previously understood, raising the possibility that herd immunity is closer than we think.
Herd Immunity, or Big 2nd Wave? Israel Antibody Testing Hopes to Find Out
Israel, whose aggressive response to the coronavirus has held its fatality rate to a fraction of those of the United States and other hard-hit nations, is readying a nationwide serological test of 100,000 citizens to see how widely the virus has spread across its population and how vulnerable it may be to a new wave of the contagion.
How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?
Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.
Is Herd Immunity Our Best Weapon Against COVID-19?
In the long run, it could protect us from future COVID-19 outbreaks. To get there, we need an effective vaccine.
It is bad science to say covid-19 infections will create herd immunity
Herd immunity can only be built if the immune response totally prevents individuals from picking up and transmitting the virus. That sometimes happens, but often doesn’t. A lot of the time, an immune response stops us from falling ill if we reacquire the virus, but doesn’t prevent onward transmission. The same is true of vaccines. We don’t yet know whether natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (or the experimental vaccines) will halt transmission. Until we do, assuming that herd immunity will automatically appear is unscientific and, frankly, irresponsible.
No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out
We need to start preparing for a darker reality.
On the road to herd immunity, vaccination speeds the journey
There is an arsenal of robust vaccine policies that can fast-track us to herd immunity: financial incentives, limits on personal or philosophical exemptions, and compulsory requirements for businesses and schools (once a vaccine for children is approved).
What Fans of ‘Herd Immunity’ Don’t Tell You
A proposal to let people with low risk of infection live without constraint could lead to a million or more preventable deaths.
What is Herd Immunity and How Can We Achieve It With COVID-19?
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease. For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control.
What It Would Take for Herd Immunity to Stop the Coronavirus Pandemic
The concept of herd immunity is at the heart of global vaccination efforts and discussions about next steps in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and bringing back economies.
What It's Like Living in One of the Only Countries to Adopt Herd Immunity
There's no lockdown in Sweden – I can go to bars, restaurants and even my office. But that doesn't mean I'm not worried.
How many people need to get a COVID-19 vaccine in order to stop the coronavirus?
It has been clear for a while that, at least in the U.S., the only way out of the coronavirus pandemic will be through vaccination. The rapid deployment of coronavirus vaccines is underway, but how many people need to be vaccinated in order to control this pandemic?
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